Good Food Guide prediction
Calling the next hats
Which Sydney venues will earn a hat in the Sydney Morning Herald Good Food Guide 2027.
Update · 26 October
How we did
5 of 25new hats called
The guide is out. We called 5 of 25 new hats: Arthur, Esteban, Lee Ho Fook (two hats), La Buvette and Watermans. Ranking venues by Google rating would have called none, and picking at random would average under one.
Our data was good at narrowing the field. 13 of this year's 20 new hats came from the top tenth of the venues we scored. But most of our strongest calls didn't get a hat, and the winners told us why.
What this year's new hats had in common
- New, and already talked about. Almost half opened in the past 16 months, and most had several reviews within months of opening.
- Chefs with form. Many had a chef or owner from another acclaimed kitchen.
- Relaxed, not lavish. Mid-priced, less formal rooms, rarely a tasting menu or a long wine list.
The venues we backed looked like established fine dining, and this year the guide went the other way. We'll build that into next year's call. Pinoli tracks chefs and owners across venues, to show in the app and to help assess quality. This result confirms that a chef's track record is an excellent indicator of a venue's quality.
The people behind the winners
Eight of the 20 new hats we scored share an owner or chef with another hatted venue. The links come from Pinoli's own venue data, past or present.
| New hat | Owner or chef | Also linked to (2027 hats) |
|---|---|---|
| Ashe2 hats | Brent Savage, Nick Hildebrandt | King Clarence (2), Yellow (2), Watermans (1) |
| Watermans1 hat | Brent Savage, Nick Hildebrandt | Ashe (2), King Clarence (2), Yellow (2) |
| Lee Ho Fook2 hats | Brad Guest, head chef | Shell House (2) |
| South End2 hats | Paul Guiney | Lo Presti's (1) |
| Joe's Tavern1 hat | Elvis Abrahanowicz, Sarah Doyle, Joe Valore | Porteno (2), Mister Grotto (1), Osteria Mucca (1) |
| La Buvette1 hat | Nathan and Sali Sasi, Morgan McGlone | Vin-Cenzo's (2), Bar Copains (1) |
| Lo Presti's1 hat | Paul Guiney | South End (2) |
| Fratelli Paradiso1 hat | Enrico Paradiso | 10 William St (1) |
We look forward to making this prediction again next year, and to sharing what we learn in public. Our sealed calls are below, unchanged.
As the team behind Pinoli and Pinoli Market Intelligence, it's our business to gather the richest data set on hospitality. We use it to power our upcoming app. If you'd like to hear when it launches, sign up at pinoli.app.
As a side project, for a bit of fun, we trained a model on the 2026 Good Food Guide and the 3,833 Sydney venues we track, then sealed our calls before the 2027 guide's release. When it lands, we'll mark ourselves here.
Our 25 new hats
Our estimateBased on our data and modelling, these are the venues we think are most likely to get a new hat this year.
| # | Venue | In the 2026 guide? |
|---|---|---|
| Strongest calls · 1 to 15 | ||
| 1 | ArmoricaSurry HillsMoving up | Moving up |
| 2 | Arthur Surry HillsSurry HillsMoving up | Moving up |
| 3 | EstebanSydneyMoving up | Moving up |
| 4 | Clarence and VSydneyMoving up | Moving up |
| 5 | Toei Surry HillsSurry HillsNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 6 | Kuro Bar & DiningSydneyMoving up | Moving up |
| 7 | Hamsi TavernaGlebeNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 8 | Bistro RexPotts PointMoving up | Moving up |
| 9 | KazanSydneyNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 10 | NomadSurry HillsNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 11 | MorenaSydneyMoving up | Moving up |
| 12 | LanaSydneyMoving up | Moving up |
| 13 | Chez Beckett'sChippendaleNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 14 | ShaffaSurry HillsNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 15 | Restaurant MoonDarlinghurstNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| Closer calls · 16 to 25 | ||
| 16 | Mille ViniSurry HillsNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 17 | The Apollo RestaurantPotts PointMoving up | Moving up |
| 18 | Lee Ho Fook SydneySydneyNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 19 | Alberto's LoungeSydneyNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 20 | Bar AlmasSurry HillsNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 21 | CanessPaddingtonNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 22 | Osteria CoogeeCoogeeNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 23 | La Buvette Potts PointPotts PointNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 24 | Restaurant LeoSydneyMoving up | Moving up |
| 25 | WatermansBarangarooNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| Strongest calls · 1 to 16 | ||
| 1 | ArmoricaSurry HillsMoving up | Moving up |
| 2 | Arthur Surry HillsSurry HillsMoving up | Moving up |
| 3 | EstebanSydneyMoving up | Moving up |
| 4 | Mimi'sCoogeeNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 5 | Clarence and VSydneyMoving up | Moving up |
| 6 | Toei Surry HillsSurry HillsNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 7 | Kuro Bar & DiningSydneyMoving up | Moving up |
| 8 | Hamsi TavernaGlebeNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 9 | Bistro RexPotts PointMoving up | Moving up |
| 10 | KazanSydneyNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 11 | NomadSurry HillsNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 12 | MorenaSydneyMoving up | Moving up |
| 13 | LanaSydneyMoving up | Moving up |
| 14 | Chez Beckett'sChippendaleNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 15 | ShaffaSurry HillsNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 16 | Restaurant MoonDarlinghurstNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| Closer calls · 17 to 25 | ||
| 17 | Mille ViniSurry HillsNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 18 | The Apollo RestaurantPotts PointMoving up | Moving up |
| 19 | FredsPaddingtonNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 20 | Lee Ho Fook SydneySydneyNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 21 | Alberto's LoungeSydneyNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 22 | Bar AlmasSurry HillsNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 23 | CanessPaddingtonNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 24 | Osteria CoogeeCoogeeNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
| 25 | La Buvette Potts PointPotts PointNot in the 2026 guide | Not in the 2026 guide |
10 are in the 2026 guide and moving up. 15 aren't in it at all. The biggest drop in the model's scores comes between positions 15 and 16, so we show two groups rather than a score for each venue.
9 are in the 2026 guide and moving up. 16 aren't in it at all. The biggest drop in the model's scores comes between positions 16 and 17, so we show two groups rather than a score for each venue.
Tested on 2026
MeasuredWe blind-tested the model on the 2026 guide, and 68% of its top 50 picks really did hold a hat.
34 of its top 50 held a hat
1 of its top 50 held a hat
47 of the 2,473 venues tested held a hat
You can't tell who will get a hat from their Google rating: ranking by it finds hats no more often than picking venues at random. Critics and crowds are measuring different things.
"Blind" means every venue was scored by a version of the model that never saw whether it held a hat. Hit rate is the share of a ranking's top 50 that held one. It is not accuracy across every venue, where a model that called no hats at all would be right about 98% of the time.
What menus reveal
Our estimateThe model reads the menus too: the dishes, how they're cooked, the producers named and the words used.
More hat-like
- Technique words: cured, fermented, koji, crudo
- Raw and cured dishes
- Named farms and regions
- Plant-forward menus
- Banquet menus
Less hat-like
- Luxury words: truffle, caviar, wagyu
- A long sides list
- Pub food: parma, wings, chips
- Breakfast menus
Our method
Measured- The answer key
We matched the 2026 guide's venues to our own and confirmed doubtful matches against the guide's address, phone number and website: 192 venues, 83 of them hatted.
- The clues
102 signals per venue from our own data as it stood in October 2026: what the menu costs and says, the wine list, who the chefs are and where else they cook, what professional reviewers have written, the room, how you book it and how diners rate it.
- No peeking
Nothing from the Good Food Guide itself goes into the clues. Venues that opened after July 2025 couldn't have made the 2026 guide, so they're left out of training but still scored.
- Scoring
We blend two standard machine-learning methods into one score. In testing, every venue was scored by a version that never saw its answer.
- Sealed, then marked
The calls and the marking rules were committed before the guide's release. We'll publish the scorecard here, against a Google ranking and chance.
Signal strength
We tested the data against more than 100 signals, and these families of signals are the ones most correlated with earning a hat.
| Signals | On its own (AUC) 0.5 coin toss1.0 | Unique to it |
|---|---|---|
| PressProfessional reviews, excluding the Good Food Guide · 6 signals | 0.84 | −3 pts |
| PresenceBooking platform, photography, socials, how it tells its story · 10 signals | 0.82 | Covered |
| MenuPrices, dish descriptions, wine and cocktail depth, how often it changes · 32 signals | 0.82 | Covered |
| RoomFormality, intimacy, noise and lighting · 23 signals | 0.81 | −1 pt |
| FormatRestaurant, wine bar, café, pub or takeaway · 13 signals | 0.80 | −2 pts |
| PeopleNamed chefs, owners and sommeliers, and where else they work · 9 signals | 0.75 | Covered |
| CrowdStrength and velocity of ratings · 4 signals | 0.72 | −2 pts |
| AgeHow long it has been open · 3 signals | 0.71 | Covered |
AUC is how well a family ranks hatted venues above the rest by itself: 0.5 is a coin toss and 1.0 is perfect. Unique to it is the precision the full model loses when that family is removed. Covered means other signals carry the same information.
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Tell me when it's outBefore you read too much into it
- Our data comes from the Sydney CBD and the 31 inner suburbs we crawl on a schedule, from Balmain and Marrickville to Potts Point and Coogee. Data for venues on the North Shore, further west and outside Sydney is still being developed, so we've left them off this list.
- We're in beta. We don't yet hold every venue that has, or will receive, a hat, and our data isn't perfect yet.
- Some venues have closed since the 2026 guide.
- This is an exercise to test our data, and a bit of fun. It doesn't endorse or criticise any venue.
Where these numbers come from
- Predictions and menu findings: our model, scored on Pinoli's own venue data as of October 2026.
- Answer key and test: the 2026 Good Food Guide's venue list, matched to our data. It is used only to train the model and, once the 2027 guide is published, to mark it.
Not affiliated with or endorsed by the Sydney Morning Herald or the Good Food Guide, whose names are trademarks of their owners. Venue names are as they appear in our data. Scores are our model's, not the guide's.